SHELDON-AFWERX Discussion 2023-03-31

Call Points

AFWERX
TDA
Group Analysis
Author

SHELDON

Published

March 30, 2023

SHELDON Draft Discussion Items
Discussion items for March 31st, 2023 call.

Data Rights

Contract Number: N6833522C0500
Contractor Name: P.W. Communications, Inc.
Contractor Address: 11200 Rockville Pike Suite 130 Rockville, MD 20852
Expiration of Data Rights Period: January 16, 2029

The Government’s rights to use, modify, reproduce, release, perform, display, or disclose technical data or computer software marked with this legend are restricted during the period shown as provided in paragraph (b)(4) of the Rights in Noncommercial Technical Data and Computer Software Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Program clause contained in the above identified contract. No restrictions apply after the expiration date shown above. Any reproduction of technical data, computer software, or portions thereof marked with this legend must also reproduce the markings.

Transition Award Time Frame

This analysis quantifies and explores the time-frame that a company transitions for the specific purpose of understanding how many companies transitioned but did so within 90 days of the AFWERX analysis start date.

Entity Breakdown, All SHELDON Transition Type

Entity Breakdown, FPDS Phase III

In each of these analyses the number of entities whose only transition award was within 90 days was under 3% of the total number of transition entities. We can discuss how to treat these companies and/or additional steps that might validate how tied to AFWERX these solo subsequent awards are.

Normalized Performance Metrics

This is a set of analyses that explores prior versus subsequent performance across a set of metrics and variables for each of our 17 topological groups.

Analysis Variables

The analyzed analysis variables include:

  1. Phase I and II SBIR/STTR
  2. FPDS Phase III SBIR/STTR
  3. Non-SBIR Procurement
  4. Sub-Contracts

Other Constraints

  • All subsequent actions relating to the Air Force/AFWERX analysis award id are excluded ie we are exploring all prior and subsequent awards that ARE NOT the analysis contract.

  • For the rolling analysis included prior awards had to have an initial award start date AND an award obligation within the specified time frame. IE for the rolling 2 year analysis if the award started 4 years before the analysis date for Company X but there was an obligation 75 days before the AFWERX analysis date that prior award would be excluded from the rolling 2 year analysis but included in the rolling 5 year analysis.

Normalization Methodology

The normalization calculation was performed using the number of days each entity operated within the specific analysis variable + 1. The + 1 accounts for entities with a single award type. There are a number of possible ways to calculate the number of days operating but we felt that looking at each analysis variable on its own most accurately reflects the performance within said analysis variable.

We also calculated the number of overall days operating within each time-frame for each entity with a matching award type as another option to normalize. This method generally includes more analysis days since it takes the earliest of any match tends to punish companies with wide gaps between dates and types within an analysis period.

Analysis Metrics

For each of these analysis variables we explored the following metrics:

  • $ in Federal Awards Per Day * 365
    • ((Total $ for all entities in group) / (Total days accrued for all entities in group)) * 365
    • A normalized proxy for annual award amount per company in the topological group during specified period
  • Distinct Awards Per Day * 365
    • ((Total distinct awards in group) / (Total days accrued for all entities in group)) * 365
    • A normalized proxy for number of distinct awards per company in the topological group during specified period
  • Distinct Entities with Award
    • Entities with a match for the specified analysis variable match during the period
  • % of Entities with Match
    • # distinct entities with match / # entities in group
    • What share of entities had specified award type during analysis period

Visualizations

Rolling 2 Years Period

Company Level Data by Period

Company Level Data for Rolling 2 Year Period

Total Topological Group Metrics

Topological Group Total Performance, 2 Year Period

Normalized Topological Group Metrics

Topological Group Normalized Performance, 2 Year Period

Subsequent vs Prior Metric Analysis

Phase I/II SBIR/STTR

Non-SBIR Procurement

Phase III

Subcontract

Rolling 5 Years Period

Company Level Data by Period

Company Level Data for Rolling 5 Year Period

Total Topological Group Metrics

Topological Group Total Performance, 5 Year Period

Normalized Topological Group Metrics

Topological Group Normalized Performance, 5 Year Period

Subsequent vs Prior Metric Analysis

Phase I/II SBIR/STTR

Non-SBIR Procurement

Phase III

Subcontract

Rolling All Time

Company Level Data by Period

Company Level Data for Rolling All Time

Total Topological Group Metrics

Topological Group Total Performance, All Time

Normalized Topological Group Metrics

Topological Group Normalized Performance, All Time

Subsequent vs Prior Metric Analysis

Phase I/II SBIR/STTR

Non-SBIR Procurement

Phase III

Subcontract

Consolidated Visualization