SHELDON AFWERX Analysis Discussion

Ideas on AFWERX analysis groups, hierarchies and provenance

SHELDON-AFWERX Company Grouping Analysis

Ideas on AFWERX analysis groups, hierarchies and provenance

Keywords

AFWERX, bins, hierarchical analysis

Data Rights

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This is a quick overview of some of the features of the Department of Defense Policy data and some ideas of possible analysis using the corrosion keyword corpus.

This page contains the data dictionaries for the AFWERX summary analysis features and normalized federal award data used to generate the summary

Data Dictionaries

Normalized Federal Award Data for AFWERX Entities

AFWERX Summary Features

Discussion Materials for October 20th, 2022

Prior Group Provenance

The analysis below incorporates outputs for what is discussed in this presentation.

SHELDON Collapsed Groups

We want to create human understandable flat groups for tabular analysis that incorporate the most salient features across multiple groups. The point of these collapsed groups is to create target success metrics and to make the data easier to digest for a wide audience.

This is the initial SHELDON proposed hierarchy at the unlumped parent level.

Bar Chart Count of Groups

Full SHELDON Hierarchy Table

parent_sheldon_group_lumped	parent_sheldon_group	group_sheldon_initial	count_entities	pct
NEW USG VENDOR	NEW USG VENDOR	NEW USG VENDOR	1,133	49.54%
NEW AIR FORCE SBIR/STTR COMPANY	NEW AIR FORCE SBIR/STTR COMPANY	NEW AIR FORCE SBIR/STTR COMPANY	592	25.89%
PRIOR FPDS PHASE III AWARDEE	PRIOR FPDS PHASE III AWARDEE	PRIOR FPDS PHASE III AWARDEE	252	11.02%
SBIR GOVERNMENT ENTRANT WITH NON PHASE I/II AWARDS	SBIR GOVERNMENT ENTRANT WITH NON PHASE I/II AWARDS	SBIR GOVERNMENT ENTRANT WITH NON PHASE I/II AWARDS	123	5.38%
ONLY PRIOR PHASE I/II PRIOR SBIR/STTR AWARDS	ONLY PRIOR PHASE I/II PRIOR SBIR/STTR AWARDS	ONLY PRIOR PHASE I/II PRIOR SBIR/STTR AWARDS	65	2.84%
PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCURMENT ENTRANT: AMOUNT AWARD TOTAL PRIOR AFWERX: $5,000,000 to $25,000,000	44	1.92%
PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCURMENT ENTRANT: AMOUNT AWARD TOTAL PRIOR AFWERX: $25,000,000 to $100,000,000	31	1.36%
OTHER 2 OTHER SHELDON INITIAL GROUPS	SUB-CONTRACTING/ASSISTANCE GOVERNMENT ENTRANT	SUB-CONTRACTING/ASSISTANCE GOVERNMENT ENTRANT	17	0.74%
PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCURMENT ENTRANT: AMOUNT AWARD TOTAL PRIOR AFWERX: $1,000,000 to $5,000,000	13	0.57%
PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCURMENT ENTRANT: AMOUNT AWARD TOTAL PRIOR AFWERX: $100,000,000 to $500,000,000	8	0.35%
OTHER 2 OTHER SHELDON INITIAL GROUPS	>= 5 YEARS SINCE LAST GOVERNMENT AWARD	>= 5 YEARS SINCE LAST GOVERNMENT AWARD	3	0.13%
PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCURMENT ENTRANT: AMOUNT AWARD TOTAL PRIOR AFWERX: > $500,000,000	3	0.13%
PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCURMENT ENTRANT: AMOUNT AWARD TOTAL PRIOR AFWERX: $50,000 to $500,000	2	0.09%
PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCUREMENT ENTRANT WITHOUT FPDS PHASE III WITH PRIOR NON PHASE I/II PROCUREMENT	PROCURMENT ENTRANT: AMOUNT AWARD TOTAL PRIOR AFWERX: $500,000 to $1,000,000	1	0.04%

Radial Groups Visualization

True Hierarchical Analysis

As we have been discussing, there are a bunch of possible hierarchies that we can explore and continue to explore as we add new features that are meant for more detailed analysis. These are conceptually more confusing to grasp and require a hierarchical understanding of the data.

AFWERX and SHELDON will continue to refine these and eventually begin to incorporate outcome features but below are a 2 samples generated by SHELDON to demonstrate what this looks like.

NEW USG VENDOR? –> NEW AF SBIR STTR? –> BIN PRIOR USG AWARD $ –> BIN YEARS PRIOR USG AWARD PRE AFWERX

AIR FORCE SBIR AWARD GROUP –> FISCAL YEAR OF AWARD –> NEW USG VENDOR? –> NEW AF SBIR STTR? –> BIN PRIOR USG AWARD $ –> BIN YEARS PRIOR USG AWARD PRE AFWERX

Sample Solicitiation Group Analysis

Item Chart

Entity Packed Bubble Chart

Discussion Materials for November 9th, 2022

Below are a set of of new visualizations to facilitate discussion and exploration of the SBIR Companies and their prior and subsequent performance.

Descriptive Analysis

The purpose of these visualizations are to visually describe the types of companies in the analysis using 2 numeric values. Once these are settled upon they can be faceted and applied as SHELDON/AFWERX see it.

These analysis are often suited towards one axis containing a ratio or percentage

Describing Prior SBIR Usage

% of P1/P2 SBIR and Total Prior USG $

% of P1/P2 SBIR and Total Prior USG Awards

% of P1/P2 SBIR and Total Prior Air Force $

% of P1/P2 SBIR and Total Prior Air Force Awards

Ratio of Subsequent Non P1/P2 Awards in 5 Years After Analysis to Total Last 10 Years

Temporal Descriptors

Number of Days from Company Founding to SAM Registration

Number of Days Post Founding to First USG Award

How long does it take to get your first award?

Explanatory Analysis

This section looks into possible exploratory relationships

Exploring Performance

Do Prior P1/P2 Awards Explain FPDS Phase III Amount?

Do Prior Air Force Awards Predict Subsequent Non P1/P2 Procurement?

Temporal Explorations

SAM Registration Date by Company Founding Date

First Award Date by Company Founding

Date of First Air Force Award by First Government Award

Bee Swarm Charts

These charts allow us to view entity level data with rough shape of the distribution. Each dot corresponds to a single company by a chosen categoric variable and group

Prior Award Beeswarms

Prior USG Award $ by Sheldon Award Type

Prior Defense Award $ by Sheldon Award Type

Prior Non P1/P2 Defense Procurment by Prior Air Force Award Bins

Distributions

These charts explore the numeric distribution of some of the key features from the summary data using histograms and density charts.

Total Prior Award Density

Total Prior Award Histogram

Total Prior Non P1/P2 & Assistance Award $ Distribution

Total Prior Non P1/P2 & Assistance Award $ Histogram

Prior Amount Distribution by SHELDON Award Type